Department of Systems Engineering, Shizuoka University, Hamamatsu Shizuoka 432-8561, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2011;1:10. doi: 10.1038/srep00010. Epub 2011 Jun 14.
Recent breakouts of several epidemics, such as flu pandemics, are serious threats to human health. The measures of protection against these epidemics are urgent issues in epidemiological studies. Prevention and quarantine are two major approaches against disease spreads. We here investigate the combined effects of these two measures of protection using the SIR model. We use site percolation for prevention and bond percolation for quarantine applying on a lattice model. We find a strong synergistic effect of prevention and quarantine under local interactions. A slight increase in protection measures is extremely effective in the initial disease spreads. Combination of the two measures is more effective than a single protection measure. Our results suggest that the protection policy against epidemics should account for both prevention and quarantine measures simultaneously.
最近爆发的几次传染病疫情，如流感大流行，对人类健康构成了严重威胁。针对这些疫情的保护措施是流行病学研究中的紧迫问题。预防和检疫是疾病传播的两种主要方法。我们在这里使用 SIR 模型研究这两种保护措施的综合效果。我们在晶格模型上使用位点渗流进行预防，使用键渗流进行检疫。我们发现局部相互作用下预防和检疫具有很强的协同效应。在疾病初始传播阶段，稍微增加保护措施就非常有效。两种措施的结合比单一保护措施更有效。我们的研究结果表明，针对传染病的保护政策应同时考虑预防和检疫措施。
