Meteorology Department, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Piatkowska 94, 60649 Poznan, Poland.
Int J Biometeorol. 2013 Jan;57(1):31-44. doi: 10.1007/s00484-012-0531-0. Epub 2012 Feb 29.
The main goal of this paper is to estimate how the observed and predicted climate changes may affect the development rates and emergence of the codling moth in the southern part of the Wielkopolska region in Poland. In order to simulate the future climate conditions one of the most frequently used A1B SRES scenarios and two different IPCC climate models (HadCM3 and GISS modelE) are considered. A daily weather generator (WGENK) was used to generate temperature values for present and future climate conditions (time horizons 2020-2040 and 2040-2060). Based on the generated data set, the degree-days values were then calculated and the emergence dates of the codling moth at key stages were estimated basing on the defined thresholds. Our analyses showed that the average air surface temperature in the Wielkopolska region may increase from 2.8°C (according to GISS modelE) even up to 3.3°C (HadCM3) in the period of 2040-2060. With the warming climate conditions the cumulated degree-days values may increase at a rate of about 142 DD per decade when the low temperature threshold (T(low)) of 0°C is considered and 91 DD per decade when T(low) = 10°C. The key developmental stages of the codling moth may occur much earlier in the future climate conditions than currently, at a rate of about 3.8-6.8 days per decade, depending on the considered GCM model and the pest developmental stage. The fastest changes may be observed in the emergence dates of 95% of larvae of the second codling moth generation. This could increase the emergence probability of the pest third generation that has not currently occurred in Poland.
本文的主要目的是估算观测到的和预测到的气候变化如何影响波兰大波兰省南部地区苹果蠹蛾的发育速度和出现。为了模拟未来的气候条件，考虑了最常用的 A1B SRES 情景之一和两个不同的 IPCC 气候模型（HadCM3 和 GISS modelE）。使用逐日天气生成器（WGENK）生成当前和未来气候条件（2020-2040 年和 2040-2060 年）的温度值。基于生成的数据集，然后计算度日值，并根据定义的阈值估计苹果蠹蛾关键阶段的出现日期。我们的分析表明，在 2040-2060 年期间，大波兰地区的空气表面平均温度可能会从 2.8°C（根据 GISS modelE）甚至上升到 3.3°C（HadCM3）。随着气候变暖，当考虑低温阈值（T(low)）为 0°C 时，累积度日值可能以每十年约 142 DD 的速度增加，当 T(low) = 10°C 时，每十年增加 91 DD。苹果蠹蛾的关键发育阶段在未来的气候条件下可能比目前更早地发生，速度约为每十年 3.8-6.8 天，具体取决于所考虑的 GCM 模型和害虫的发育阶段。最快的变化可能出现在第二代苹果蠹蛾 95%幼虫的出现日期上。这可能会增加波兰目前尚未出现的第三代害虫的出现概率。
