Key Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China.
Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada.
J Insect Sci. 2021 Mar 1;21(2). doi: 10.1093/jisesa/ieab024.
The codling moth Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is a destructive pest of apple (Malus domestica (Rosales: Rosaceae)), pear (Pyrus spp. (Rosales: Rosaceae)), and other pome tree fruits; outbreaks cause significant ecological and economic losses. In this study, we used CLIMEX model to predict and evaluate the global risk of C. pomonella based on historical climate data (1989-2018) and simulated future climate data (2071-2100) under the RCP4.5 scenarios. Cydia pomonella exhibited a wide distribution under both historical and future climate conditions. Climate change is predicted to expand the northern boundary of the potential distribution from approximately 60°N to 75°N. Temperature was the most dominant factor in climatic suitability for the pest. Combinations of multiple meteorological factors (relative humidity and precipitation) associated with a failure to break diapause in certain regions also affect suitability, particularly in northern South America and central Africa. Irrigation only had a slight impact on species favorability in some areas. The projections established in our study present insight into the global potential suitability of C. pomonella under climate change scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Farmers should be aware of the risk associated with the pest based on the results, which would provide guidance for quarantine agencies and trade negotiators worldwide.
东方果实蝇（Bactrocera dorsalis）是一种毁灭性的果实蝇害虫，对苹果（Malus domestica（蔷薇科：蔷薇科））、梨（Pyrus spp.（蔷薇科：蔷薇科））和其他苹果属果树果实造成严重破坏；爆发会造成重大的生态和经济损失。在这项研究中，我们使用 CLIMEX 模型，根据历史气候数据（1989-2018 年）和 RCP4.5 情景下模拟的未来气候数据（2071-2100 年），预测和评估了东方果实蝇的全球风险。在历史和未来气候条件下，东方果实蝇的分布范围都很广。气候变化预计将使潜在分布的北部边界从大约 60°N 扩展到 75°N。温度是影响害虫气候适宜性的最主要因素。与某些地区无法打破滞育相关的多个气象因素（相对湿度和降水）的组合也会影响适宜性，特别是在南美洲北部和非洲中部。在某些地区，灌溉对物种的适宜性只有轻微影响。我们的研究结果为了解 21 世纪末气候变化情景下东方果实蝇的全球潜在适宜性提供了依据。农民应该根据结果了解与该害虫相关的风险，这将为全球检疫机构和贸易谈判代表提供指导。
