Yang Yang, Longini Ira M, Halloran M Elizabeth
Department of Biostatistics, The Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA 30322, U.S.A.
J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat. 2006 May;55(3):317-330. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2006.00539.x.
Prophylaxis of contacts of infectious cases such as household members and treatment of infectious cases are methods to prevent spread of infectious diseases. We develop a method based on maximum likelihood to estimate the efficacy of such interventions and the transmission probabilities. We consider both the design with prospective follow-up of close contact groups and the design with ascertainment of close contact groups by an index case as well as randomization by groups and by individuals. We compare the designs using simulations. We estimate the efficacy of the influenza antiviral agent oseltamivir in reducing susceptibility and infectiousness in two case-ascertained household trials.
对传染病病例的接触者（如家庭成员）进行预防以及对传染病病例进行治疗是预防传染病传播的方法。我们开发了一种基于最大似然法的方法来估计此类干预措施的效果和传播概率。我们既考虑对密切接触者群体进行前瞻性随访的设计，也考虑通过索引病例确定密切接触者群体以及按组和按个体进行随机化的设计。我们通过模拟比较这些设计。我们在两项病例确诊的家庭试验中估计了流感抗病毒药物奥司他韦在降低易感性和传染性方面的效果。
