Prediction of muscle energy states at low metabolic rates requires feedback control of mitochondrial respiratory chain activity by inorganic phosphate.

The regulation of the 100-fold dynamic range of mitochondrial ATP synthesis flux in skeletal muscle was investigated. Hypotheses of key control mechanisms were included in a biophysical model of oxidative phosphorylation and tested against metabolite dynamics recorded by (31)P nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy ((31)P MRS). Simulations of the initial model featuring only ADP and Pi feedback control of flux failed in reproducing the experimentally sampled relation between myoplasmic free energy of ATP hydrolysis (ΔG(p) = ΔG(p)(o')+RT ln ([ADP][Pi]/[ATP]) and the rate of mitochondrial ATP synthesis at low fluxes (<0.2 mM/s). Model analyses including Monte Carlo simulation approaches and metabolic control analysis (MCA) showed that this problem could not be amended by model re-parameterization, but instead required reformulation of ADP and Pi feedback control or introduction of additional control mechanisms (feed forward activation), specifically at respiratory Complex III. Both hypotheses were implemented and tested against time course data of phosphocreatine (PCr), Pi and ATP dynamics during post-exercise recovery and validation data obtained by (31)P MRS of sedentary subjects and track athletes. The results rejected the hypothesis of regulation by feed forward activation. Instead, it was concluded that feedback control of respiratory chain complexes by inorganic phosphate is essential to explain the regulation of mitochondrial ATP synthesis flux in skeletal muscle throughout its full dynamic range.