Medical Affairs, GlaxoSmithKline Inc, 7333 Mississauga Road, Mississauga L5N 6L4, ON, Canada.
BMC Cardiovasc Disord. 2012 Apr 2;12:25. doi: 10.1186/1471-2261-12-25.
The risk of experiencing an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) increases with age and Canada's population is aging. The objective of this analysis was to examine trends in the AMI hospitalization rate in Canada between 2002 and 2009 and to estimate the potential increase in the number of AMI hospitalizations over the next decade.
Aggregated data on annual AMI hospitalizations were obtained from the Canadian Institute for Health Information for all provinces and territories, except Quebec, for 2002/03 and 2009/10. Using these data in a Poisson regression model to control for age, gender and year, the rate of AMI hospitalizations was extrapolated between 2010 and 2020. The extrapolated rate and Statistics Canada population projections were used to estimate the number of AMI hospitalizations in 2020.
The rates of AMI hospitalizations by gender and age group showed a decrease between 2002 and 2009 in patients aged ≥ 65 years and relatively stable rates in those aged < 64 years in both males and females. However, the total number of AMI hospitalizations in Canada (excluding Quebec) is projected to increase by 4667 from 51847 in 2009 to 56514 in 2020, a 9.0% increase. Inflating this number to account for the unavailable Quebec data results in an increase of approximately 6200 for the whole of Canada. This would amount to an additional cost of between $46 and $54 million and sensitivity analyses indicate that it could be between $36 and $65 million.
Despite projected decreasing or stable rates of AMI hospitalization, the number of hospitalizations is expected to increase substantially as a result of the aging of the Canadian population. The cost of these hospitalizations will be substantial. An increase of this extent in the number of AMI hospitalizations and the ensuing costs would significantly impact the already over-stretched Canadian healthcare system.
随着年龄的增长，发生急性心肌梗死（AMI）的风险增加，而加拿大的人口正在老龄化。本分析的目的是研究 2002 年至 2009 年加拿大 AMI 住院率的趋势，并估计未来十年 AMI 住院人数的潜在增长。
从加拿大健康信息研究所获得了除魁北克省以外的所有省份和地区的 2002/03 年和 2009/10 年每年 AMI 住院数据。使用泊松回归模型，根据年龄、性别和年份对这些数据进行控制，推断出 2010 年至 2020 年 AMI 住院率。将推断出的比率和加拿大统计局的人口预测结合起来，用于估计 2020 年 AMI 住院人数。
按性别和年龄组划分的 AMI 住院率在 2002 年至 2009 年间，65 岁及以上患者呈下降趋势，男性和女性中<64 岁的患者相对稳定。然而，加拿大（不包括魁北克）的 AMI 住院总数预计将从 2009 年的 51847 例增加到 2020 年的 56514 例，增长 9.0%。将这一数字膨胀以考虑到魁北克省未提供的数据，整个加拿大的增长约为 6200 例。这将增加约 4600 万至 5400 万美元的费用，敏感性分析表明，费用可能在 3600 万至 6500 万美元之间。
尽管 AMI 住院率预计会下降或保持稳定，但由于加拿大人口老龄化，住院人数预计会大幅增加。这些住院费用将是巨大的。AMI 住院人数如此大幅度的增加及其随之而来的费用将对加拿大本已紧张的医疗保健系统产生重大影响。
