Ding Li-Xiang, Wang You-Xin
Department of Orthopedics Surgery, Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Beijing, China.
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2011;12(12):3319-22.
Wide use of cellular telephones has given rise to concerns about adverse health effects, especially in the brain, which might caused by the low power microwave-frequency signal transmitted by the antennas on handsets. Subscribers to cellular telephone services increased from mid-1990s in Shanghai; time trends in brain and nervous tumour after 2000 may supply information about possible associations between tumour risk and cellular telephones use.
We investigated time trends in the incidence of brain and nervous tumour in urban Shanghai, from 1983 to 2007, applying joinpoint regression models to analyze the annual incidence rates and to predict future trends.
from 1983 to 2007, the age-adjusted incidence rate of brain and nervous tumours increased gradually by 1.2% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.4% to 1.9%) among men and 2.8% per year (95% CI =2.1 to 3.4) among women. Age-adjusted incidences of brain and nervous tumours in urban Shanghai for 2020 were estimated to 7.4 and 10.9 per 100,000 person-years.
The study did not support an association between cellular telephone use and increased risk of brain and nervous tumours. However, considering the increasing incidence rate of brain and nervous tumours now and in the future, in addition to the high prevalence of mobile phone exposure in the population and worldwide, assessment of longer follow-up time trends in brain tumour incidence rates is warranted.
手机的广泛使用引发了人们对其对健康产生不良影响的担忧，尤其是对大脑的影响，这可能是由手机天线上传输的低功率微波频率信号所致。上海的手机用户自20世纪90年代中期开始增加；2000年后脑肿瘤和神经肿瘤的时间趋势可能会提供有关肿瘤风险与手机使用之间潜在关联的信息。
我们调查了1983年至2007年上海市城区脑肿瘤和神经肿瘤的发病率随时间的变化趋势，应用连接点回归模型分析年发病率并预测未来趋势。
1983年至2007年期间，男性脑肿瘤和神经肿瘤的年龄调整发病率每年逐渐上升1.2%（95%置信区间[CI]=0.4%至1.9%），女性每年上升2.8%（95%CI=2.1%至3.4%）。据估计，2020年上海市城区脑肿瘤和神经肿瘤的年龄调整发病率分别为每10万人年7.4例和10.9例。
该研究不支持手机使用与脑肿瘤和神经肿瘤风险增加之间存在关联。然而，考虑到目前及未来脑肿瘤和神经肿瘤发病率不断上升，以及全球范围内人群手机暴露的高普及率，有必要对脑肿瘤发病率的更长随访时间趋势进行评估。
