Departamento de Toxicología, Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Av. Instituto Politécnico Nacional 2508, Col. San Pedro Zacatenco, Delegación Gustavo A. Madero, 07760 Mexico, D F, Mexico.
Int Arch Occup Environ Health. 2013 Apr;86(3):321-32. doi: 10.1007/s00420-012-0768-2. Epub 2012 Apr 8.
We aimed to evaluate the association between changes in airborne particulate matter concentration (PM) with changes in cases of mortality, acute respiratory infections (ARI) and asthma over 2004-2008 in an industrialized and polluted region in central Mexico.
A generalized linear model with a Poisson distribution and a negative binomial analysis was used to evaluate the influence of PM and temperature on all-cause mortality (All-cause-M), cause-specific mortality (Cause-specific-M), ARI and asthma, using cubic spline functions and distributed lags of PM. Estimated changes in relative risk were calculated for an exposure corresponding to each increase of 10 μg/m(3) in PM level.
Associations between PM and mortality and morbidity were statistically most consistent for total suspended particulate (TSP) than for particulate matter <10 μM aerodynamic diameter (PM10). The greatest effects in mortality were observed with a 3-week lag, and effects were greater for Cause-specific-M. We also found a displacement effect up to 4-week lag for Cause-specific-M and TSP. The greatest effects in morbidity were observed at 0-week lag, yet they were statistically marginal and were greater for asthma. We found a displacement effect at 4-5-6-week lag for asthma and TSP. All associations of mortality and morbidity, expressed as change in relative risk, were greater with PM10; however, all of them were statistically marginal.
Increased respiratory morbidity and mortality is associated with weekly changes of PM air pollution in the region. A reduction in air pollutants from industrial sources would benefit life quality and health of the exposed population.
我们旨在评估 2004-2008 年期间，在墨西哥中部一个工业化和污染地区，空气中颗粒物浓度（PM）的变化与死亡率、急性呼吸道感染（ARI）和哮喘病例变化之间的关系。
使用广义线性模型，采用泊松分布和负二项式分析，使用 PM 的三次样条函数和分布滞后，评估 PM 和温度对全因死亡率（All-cause-M）、死因特异性死亡率（Cause-specific-M）、ARI 和哮喘的影响。对于暴露于每增加 10μg/m³ PM 水平的情况下，计算相对风险的估计变化。
与死亡率和发病率相关的 PM 关联，对于总悬浮颗粒物（TSP）比对于<10μM 空气动力学直径的颗粒物（PM10）更为一致。在死亡率方面，最大影响出现在 3 周滞后，并且对于死因特异性死亡率影响更大。我们还发现，对于死因特异性死亡率和 TSP，存在长达 4 周的滞后的位移效应。在发病率方面，最大影响出现在 0 周滞后，但统计学上微不足道，并且对于哮喘影响更大。我们发现，对于哮喘和 TSP，存在长达 4-5-6 周的滞后的位移效应。所有死亡率和发病率的关联，用相对风险的变化来表示，与 PM10 相关更大；然而，所有这些都具有统计学上的边缘性。
每周 PM 空气污染变化与该地区呼吸发病率和死亡率的增加有关。减少来自工业源的空气污染物将有利于暴露人群的生活质量和健康。
