National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
PLoS One. 2012;7(4):e34411. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0034411. Epub 2012 Apr 4.
Tuberculosis (TB) is a growing problem worldwide, especially with the emergence and high prevalence of multidrug-resistant strains. We develop a metapopulation model for TB spread, which is particularly suited to investigating transmission between areas of high and low prevalence. A case study of cross-border transmission in the Torres Strait region of Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) is considered and a sensitivity analysis is conducted. We find that only 6 of the 50 parameters analysed are important to the cumulative number of clinically active TB patients in the entire region. Of these, only the detection rate in PNG is found to be an important intervention parameter. We therefore give insight into the extent the area with the high burden of TB (PNG in the case study) is dominating the TB dynamics of the entire region. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis results give insight into the data that most important to collect and refine, which is found to be data relating to the PNG parameters.
结核病（TB）是一个全球性的日益严重的问题，特别是随着多药耐药菌株的出现和高发。我们开发了一种用于结核病传播的复合种群模型，该模型特别适合调查高患病率和低患病率地区之间的传播。本文以澳大利亚托雷斯海峡地区和巴布亚新几内亚（PNG）的跨境传播为例进行了案例研究，并进行了敏感性分析。我们发现，在分析的 50 个参数中，只有 6 个对整个地区临床活动性结核病患者的累积数量有重要影响。其中，只有 PNG 的检测率被发现是一个重要的干预参数。因此，我们深入了解了高结核病负担地区（在案例研究中为 PNG）对整个地区结核病动态的主导程度。此外，敏感性分析结果深入了解了最重要的数据收集和完善，这被发现是与 PNG 参数相关的数据。
