Ahlburg D A, Vaupel J W
Industrial Relations Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis 55455.
Demography. 1990 Nov;27(4):639-52.
The U.S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality decline and low levels of immigration. In this article we explore the impact on the size and age composition of the U.S. population of alternative scenarios of plausible fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions. We conclude that (1) the Census Bureau's highest projection might be interpreted as a reasonable middle projection, (2) a reasonable high projection would yield a U.S. population in 2080 some 300 million persons larger than the Bureau's highest projection, with the population 85 and older more than twice the Bureau's greatest estimate, and (3) uncertainty about the pace of population growth is substantially greater than the Bureau's projections suggest.
美国人口普查局最近发布了一组人口预测数据，其中包括中等和高预测值，但我们认为这些预测过于保守。这些预测没有考虑到未来婴儿潮出现的可能性，并且假设死亡率下降速度缓慢且移民水平较低。在本文中，我们探讨了在合理的生育率、死亡率和移民假设的替代情景下，对美国人口规模和年龄构成的影响。我们得出以下结论：（1）人口普查局的最高预测值或许可被视为合理的中等预测值；（2）一个合理的高预测值会使2080年的美国人口比人口普查局的最高预测值多出约3亿人，85岁及以上人口是人口普查局最大估计值的两倍多；（3）人口增长速度的不确定性远大于人口普查局预测所显示的。
