Sandia National Laboratories, P.O. Box 5800, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185, United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2012 May 15;46(10):5616-22. doi: 10.1021/es204569t. Epub 2012 Apr 30.
Oil flow rates and cumulative discharge from the BP Macondo Prospect well in the Gulf of Mexico are calculated using a physically based model along with wellhead pressures measured at the blowout preventer (BOP) over the 86-day period following the Deepwater Horizon accident. Parameters appearing in the model are determined empirically from pressures measured during well shut-in and from pressures and flow rates measured the preceding day. This methodology rigorously accounts for ill-characterized evolution of the marine riser, installation and removal of collection caps, and any erosion at the wellhead. The calculated initial flow rate is 67,100 stock-tank barrels per day (stbd), which decays to 54,400 stbd just prior to installation of the capping stack and subsequent shut-in. The calculated cumulative discharge is 5.4 million stock-tank barrels, of which 4.6 million barrels entered the Gulf. Quantifiable uncertainties in these values are -9.3% and +7.5%, yielding a likely total discharge in the range from 4.9 to 5.8 million barrels. Minimum and maximum credible values of this discharge are 4.6 and 6.2 million barrels. Alternative calculations using the reservoir and sea-floor pressures indicate that any erosion within the BOP had little affect on cumulative discharge.
使用基于物理的模型以及深水地平线事故发生后 86 天内防喷器（BOP）处测量的井口压力，计算了墨西哥湾 BP Macondo 探井的油流量和累积排放量。模型中出现的参数是根据关井期间测量的压力以及前一天测量的压力和流量经验确定的。该方法严格考虑了海洋立管的特征演化、收集盖的安装和拆除以及井口的任何侵蚀。计算得出的初始流量为 67100 桶/天（stbd），在安装封井器堆叠并随后关闭之前衰减至 54400 stbd。计算得出的累积排放量为 540 万桶，其中 460 万桶进入了海湾。这些值的可量化不确定性为-9.3%和+7.5%，因此总排放量可能在 490 万至 580 万桶之间。该排放量的最小和最大可信值分别为 460 万和 620 万桶。使用储层和海底压力的替代计算表明，BOP 内的任何侵蚀对累积排放量影响不大。
