Department of Geography, University of Zurich, 8057 Zürich, Switzerland.
Science. 2012 Apr 20;336(6079):310-4. doi: 10.1126/science.1215828.
Himalayan glaciers are a focus of public and scientific debate. Prevailing uncertainties are of major concern because some projections of their future have serious implications for water resources. Most Himalayan glaciers are losing mass at rates similar to glaciers elsewhere, except for emerging indications of stability or mass gain in the Karakoram. A poor understanding of the processes affecting them, combined with the diversity of climatic conditions and the extremes of topographical relief within the region, makes projections speculative. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that dramatic changes in total runoff will occur soon, although continuing shrinkage outside the Karakoram will increase the seasonality of runoff, affect irrigation and hydropower, and alter hazards.
喜马拉雅山脉的冰川是公众和科学界争论的焦点。主要关注的是普遍存在的不确定性,因为一些关于它们未来的预测对水资源有着严重的影响。除了喀喇昆仑山脉有稳定或质量增加的新迹象外,大多数喜马拉雅山脉的冰川正在以类似于其他地区的冰川的速度失去质量。人们对影响它们的过程了解甚少,再加上该地区气候条件的多样性和地形起伏的极端性,使得预测具有推测性。尽管如此,在喀喇昆仑山脉以外地区持续收缩将增加径流量的季节性,影响灌溉和水力发电,并改变危害,总径流量不太可能很快发生戏剧性变化。