Butrica Barbara A, Smith Karen E, Iams Howard M
Urban Institute, USA.
Soc Secur Bull. 2012;72(1):37-58.
This article examines how retirement income at age 67 is likely to change for baby boomers and persons born in generation X (GenX) compared with current retirees. We use the Social Security Administration's Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) model to project retirement income and assets, poverty rates, and replacement rates for current and future retirees at age 67. We find that, in absolute terms, retirement incomes offuture cohorts will increase over time, and poverty rates will fall. However, projected income gains are larger for higher than for lower socioeconomic groups, leading to increased income inequality among future retirees. Finally, because postretirement incomes are not expected to rise as much as preretirement incomes, baby boomers and GenXers are less likely to have enough postretirement income to maintain their preretirement standard of living compared with current retirees.
本文探讨了与当前退休人员相比，婴儿潮一代和X世代人群67岁时的退休收入可能会如何变化。我们使用社会保障管理局的近期收入建模（MINT）模型来预测当前和未来67岁退休人员的退休收入与资产、贫困率及替代率。我们发现，从绝对值来看，未来几代人的退休收入将随时间增加，贫困率也会下降。然而，预计社会经济地位较高群体的收入增长幅度大于较低群体，这将导致未来退休人员之间的收入不平等加剧。最后，由于退休后的收入预计不会像退休前的收入增长那么多，与当前退休人员相比，婴儿潮一代和X世代人群更不太可能拥有足够的退休后收入来维持他们退休前的生活水平。
