The Cancer Survival Query System: making survival estimates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program more timely and relevant for recently diagnosed patients.

BACKGROUND

Population-based cancer registries that include patient follow-up generally provide information regarding net survival (ie, survival associated with the risk of dying of cancer in the absence of competing risks). However, registry data also can be used to calculate survival from cancer in the presence of competing risks, which is more clinically relevant.

METHODS

Statistical methods were developed to predict the risk of death from cancer and other causes, as well as natural life expectancy if the patient did not have cancer based on a profile of prognostic factors including characteristics of the cancer, demographic factors, and comorbid conditions. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program database was used to calculate the risk of dying of cancer. Because the risks of dying of cancer versus other causes are assumed to be independent conditional on the prognostic factors, a wide variety of independent data sources can be used to calculate the risk of death from other causes. Herein, the risk of death from other causes was estimated using SEER and Medicare claims data, and was matched to the closest fitting portion of the US life table to obtain a "health status-adjusted age."

RESULTS

A nomogram was developed for prostate cancer as part of a Web-based Cancer Survival Query System that is targeted for use by physicians and patients to obtain information on a patient's prognosis. More nomograms currently are being developed.

CONCLUSIONS

Nomograms of this type can be used as one tool to assist cancer physicians and their patients to better understand their prognosis and to weigh alternative treatment and palliative strategies.