Jemal Ahmedin, Ward Elizabeth M, Johnson Christopher J, Cronin Kathleen A, Ma Jiemin, Ryerson Blythe, Mariotto Angela, Lake Andrew J, Wilson Reda, Sherman Recinda L, Anderson Robert N, Henley S Jane, Kohler Betsy A, Penberthy Lynne, Feuer Eric J, Weir Hannah K
Surveillance and Health Services Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Intramural Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA, USA.
J Natl Cancer Inst. 2017 Sep 1;109(9). doi: 10.1093/jnci/djx030.
The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate to provide annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States. This Annual Report highlights survival rates. Data were from the CDC- and NCI-funded population-based cancer registry programs and compiled by NAACCR. Trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the leading cancer types by sex were estimated by joinpoint analysis and expressed as annual percent change. We used relative survival ratios and adjusted relative risk of death after a diagnosis of cancer (hazard ratios [HRs]) using Cox regression model to examine changes or differences in survival over time and by sociodemographic factors.
Overall cancer death rates from 2010 to 2014 decreased by 1.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = -1.8 to -1.8) per year in men, by 1.4% (95% CI = -1.4 to -1.3) per year in women, and by 1.6% (95% CI = -2.0 to -1.3) per year in children. Death rates decreased for 11 of the 16 most common cancer types in men and for 13 of the 18 most common cancer types in women, including lung, colorectal, female breast, and prostate, whereas death rates increased for liver (men and women), pancreas (men), brain (men), and uterine cancers. In contrast, overall incidence rates from 2009 to 2013 decreased by 2.3% (95% CI = -3.1 to -1.4) per year in men but stabilized in women. For several but not all cancer types, survival statistically significantly improved over time for both early and late-stage diseases. Between 1975 and 1977, and 2006 and 2012, for example, five-year relative survival for distant-stage disease statistically significantly increased from 18.7% (95% CI = 16.9% to 20.6%) to 33.6% (95% CI = 32.2% to 35.0%) for female breast cancer but not for liver cancer (from 1.1%, 95% CI = 0.3% to 2.9%, to 2.3%, 95% CI = 1.6% to 3.2%). Survival varied by race/ethnicity and state. For example, the adjusted relative risk of death for all cancers combined was 33% (HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.32 to 1.34) higher in non-Hispanic blacks and 51% (HR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.46 to 1.56) higher in non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native compared with non-Hispanic whites.
Cancer death rates continue to decrease in the United States. However, progress in reducing death rates and improving survival is limited for several cancer types, underscoring the need for intensified efforts to discover new strategies for prevention, early detection, and treatment and to apply proven preventive measures broadly and equitably.
美国癌症协会(ACS)、疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)、国家癌症研究所(NCI)以及北美中央癌症登记协会(NAACCR)合作提供美国癌症发病情况及趋势的年度更新。本年度报告重点关注生存率。数据来自疾病预防控制中心和国家癌症研究所资助的基于人群的癌症登记项目,并由北美中央癌症登记协会汇编。通过连接点分析估计所有癌症合并以及按性别划分的主要癌症类型的年龄标准化发病率和死亡率趋势,并以年度百分比变化表示。我们使用相对生存比率以及使用Cox回归模型诊断癌症后的调整后相对死亡风险(风险比[HRs])来研究生存随时间以及社会人口学因素的变化或差异。
2010年至2014年,男性总体癌症死亡率每年下降1.8%(95%置信区间[CI]= -1.8至-1.8),女性每年下降1.4%(95% CI = -1.4至-1.3),儿童每年下降1.6%(95% CI = -2.0至-1.3)。男性16种最常见癌症类型中有11种以及女性18种最常见癌症类型中有13种的死亡率下降,包括肺癌、结直肠癌、女性乳腺癌和前列腺癌,而肝癌(男性和女性)、胰腺癌(男性)、脑癌(男性)和子宫癌的死亡率上升。相比之下,2009年至2013年男性总体发病率每年下降2.3%(95% CI = -3.1至-1.4),而女性发病率稳定。对于几种但并非所有癌症类型,早期和晚期疾病的生存率均随时间有统计学意义的改善。例如,在1975年至1977年以及2006年至2012年期间,女性乳腺癌远处转移期疾病的五年相对生存率从18.7%(95% CI = 16.9%至20.6%)显著提高至33.6%(95% CI = 32.2%至35.0%),但肝癌并非如此(从1.1%,95% CI = 0.3%至2.9%,提高至2.3%,95% CI = 1.6%至3.2%)。生存率因种族/族裔和州而异。例如,与非西班牙裔白人相比,所有癌症合并的调整后相对死亡风险在非西班牙裔黑人中高33%(HR = 1.33,95% CI = 1.32至1.34),在非西班牙裔美国印第安人/阿拉斯加原住民中高51%(HR = 1.51,95% CI = 1.46至1.56)。
美国癌症死亡率持续下降。然而,几种癌症类型在降低死亡率和提高生存率方面进展有限,这突出表明需要加大力度发现预防、早期检测和治疗的新策略,并广泛、公平地应用已证实的预防措施。