洪水风险管理:美国陆军工程兵团和非专业人士的看法。
Flood risk management: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and layperson perceptions.
机构信息
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory, Vicksburg, MS, USA.
出版信息
Risk Anal. 2012 Aug;32(8):1349-68. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01832.x. Epub 2012 May 9.
Recent severe storm experiences in the U.S. Gulf Coast illustrate the importance of an integrated approach to flood preparedness planning that harmonizes stakeholder and agency efforts. Risk management decisions that are informed by and address decision maker and stakeholder risk perceptions and behavior are essential for effective risk management policy. A literature review and two expert models/mental models studies were undertaken to identify areas of importance in the flood risk management process for layperson, non-USACE-expert, and two USACE-expert groups. In characterizing and mapping stakeholder beliefs about risks in the literature onto current risk management practice, recommendations for accommodating and changing stakeholder perceptions of flood risks and their management are identified. Needs of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) flood preparedness and response program are discussed in the context of flood risk mental models.
美国墨西哥湾沿岸最近发生的严重风暴事件表明,在洪水防范规划中采取综合方法非常重要,这种方法可以协调利益相关者和机构的努力。风险管理决策必须基于决策者和利益相关者的风险感知和行为,并针对这些感知和行为,这对于有效的风险管理政策至关重要。开展了文献回顾和两项专家模型/心智模型研究,以确定非 USACE 专家和两组 USACE 专家群体在洪水风险管理过程中的重要领域。在将文献中关于风险的利益相关者信念进行特征描述并映射到当前的风险管理实践中时,确定了针对洪水风险及其管理的利益相关者认知的调整和改变建议。在洪水风险心智模型的背景下,讨论了美国陆军工程兵团(USACE)洪水防范和应对计划的需求。