Winterscheid A
Darmstadt University of Technology, Institute of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Petersenstr. 13, 64287 Darmstadt, Germany.
Water Sci Technol. 2007;56(4):87-95. doi: 10.2166/wst.2007.540.
It is now commonly accepted that the management of flood risks has to be fulfilled within an integrated framework. About two decades ago flood risk was managed from a limited perspective predominantly by means of structural measures aimed at flood control. In contrast integrated flood risk management incorporates the complete management cycle consisting of the phases prevention, protection and preparedness. In theory it is a well described concept. In the stage of implementation, however, there is often a lack of support although a consistent policy framework exists. Consequently, the degree of implementation must be rated as inadequate in many cases. In particular this refers to the elements which focus on preparedness and prevention. The study to which this paper refers emphasises the means and potentials of scenario technique to foster the implementation of potentially appropriate measures and new societal arrangements when applied in the framework of integrated flood risk management. A literature review is carried out to reveal the state-of-the-art and the specific problem framework within which scenario technique is generally being applied. Subsequently, it is demonstrated that scenario technique is transferable to a policy making process in flood risk management that is integrated, sustainable and interactive. The study concludes with a recommendation for three applications in which the implementation of measures of flood damage prevention and preparedness is supported by scenario technique.
现在人们普遍认为，洪水风险管理必须在一个综合框架内进行。大约二十年前，洪水风险主要从有限的角度进行管理，主要通过旨在防洪的结构性措施来实现。相比之下，综合洪水风险管理纳入了由预防、保护和备灾阶段组成的完整管理周期。从理论上讲，这是一个描述清晰的概念。然而，在实施阶段，尽管存在一致的政策框架，但往往缺乏支持。因此，在许多情况下，实施程度必须被评为不足。特别是对于侧重于备灾和预防的要素而言。本文所提及的研究强调了情景技术在综合洪水风险管理框架中应用时，促进实施潜在适当措施和新的社会安排的手段和潜力。进行了文献综述，以揭示情景技术普遍应用的最新状况和具体问题框架。随后，证明了情景技术可转移到洪水风险管理的综合、可持续和互动的决策过程中。该研究最后提出了三项应用建议，情景技术可在这些应用中支持洪水损害预防和备灾措施的实施。
