Khormi Hassan M, Kumar Lalit
Ecosystem Management, School of Environmental and Rural Sciences, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia.
Geospat Health. 2012 May;6(2):171-6. doi: 10.4081/gh.2012.135.
An important option in preventing the spread of dengue fever (DF) is to control and monitor its vector (Aedes aegypti) as well as to locate and destroy suitable mosquito breeding environments. The aim of the present study was to use a combination of environmental and socioeconomic variables to model areas at risk of DF. These variables include clinically confirmed DF cases, mosquito counts, population density in inhabited areas, total populations per district, water access, neighbourhood quality and the spatio-temporal risk of DF based on the average, weekly frequency of DF incidence. Out of 111 districts investigated, 17 (15%), covering a total area of 121 km2, were identified as of high risk, 25 (22%), covering 133 km2, were identified as of medium risk, 18 (16%), covering 180 km2, were identified as of low risk and 51 (46%), covering 726 km2, were identified as of very low risk. The resultant model shows that most areas at risk of DF were concentrated in the central part of Jeddah county, Saudi Arabia. The methods used can be implemented as routine procedures for control and prevention. A concerted intervention in the medium- and high-risk level districts identified in this study could be highly effective in reducing transmission of DF in the area as a whole.
预防登革热（DF）传播的一个重要选择是控制和监测其病媒（埃及伊蚊），以及查找和消除适宜的蚊子滋生环境。本研究的目的是结合环境和社会经济变量，对登革热风险区域进行建模。这些变量包括临床确诊的登革热病例数、蚊子数量、居民区人口密度、每个区的总人口数、用水情况、社区质量以及基于登革热发病平均每周频率的登革热时空风险。在调查的111个区中，17个区（15%），总面积为121平方公里，被确定为高风险区；25个区（22%），面积为133平方公里，被确定为中风险区；18个区（16%），面积为180平方公里，被确定为低风险区；51个区（46%），面积为726平方公里，被确定为极低风险区。所得模型显示，大多数登革热风险区域集中在沙特阿拉伯吉达县的中部。所采用的方法可作为控制和预防的常规程序来实施。对本研究确定的中高风险水平区域进行协同干预，对于减少整个地区登革热的传播可能会非常有效。
