Preventive medicine, Public Health MOH, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Preventive medicine, Public Health MOH, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020 Nov 30;14(11):e0008847. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008847. eCollection 2020 Nov.
Rapid urbanization, global trade, and the exceptionally great numbers of worldwide visitors during Hajj and Umrah have all placed the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at a significant risk of introducing several vector-borne tropical diseases, such as dengue fever virus (DENV) infection. In this study we estimated DENV infection cost of illness (COI) in Saudi Arabia in the period 2013-2017, by processing national data including all declared cases recorded in referral centers in the western region, being the endemic region of the country. Using a statistically validated predictive model that was built on a representative sample of 717 laboratory-confirmed cases of DENV infection, direct costs, due to care-related expenditures, were estimated by applying the predictive equation to national data. However, indirect costs, which are due to productivity loss, were estimated using the human capital model based on gross domestic product adjusted for invalidity duration. Further, under-reporting was adjusted by using an expansion factor EF = 3. We observed highest estimated costs in 2016 with over US$168.5 Million total costs, including direct (US$29.0 Million) and indirect (US$139.5 Million) costs, for a total 4415 confirmed cases. The total DENV COI for the five years was estimated as US$551.0 Million for a total 15,369 patients (59.7%) out of 25,745 declared cases, resulting in an average cost of US$11 947.6 by patient. Depending on the year, productivity years loss costs accounted for 63.3% to 83.8% of the estimated total costs. Dengue has a substantial local economic burden that costs US$110.2 Million per year, stressing the urgent need for an effective national prevention strategy to perform considerable cost-savings besides reducing morbidity.
快速城市化、全球贸易以及朝觐和副朝期间全球游客数量的异常庞大，使沙特阿拉伯王国面临着引入几种虫媒热带病（如登革热病毒[DENV]感染）的巨大风险。在这项研究中，我们根据包括西部地区转诊中心记录的所有确诊病例在内的国家数据，对沙特阿拉伯 2013 年至 2017 年期间的登革热感染疾病成本（COI）进行了估计，西部地区是该国的地方性流行地区。我们使用了一种经统计学验证的预测模型，该模型是基于对 717 例实验室确诊的登革热感染病例的代表性样本构建的，通过将预测方程应用于国家数据，估算了与护理相关支出直接成本。然而，由于生产力损失导致的间接成本则是根据基于国内生产总值并调整无效持续时间的人力资本模型来估算的。此外，我们通过使用扩展因子 EF = 3 来调整漏报率。我们观察到 2016 年的估计成本最高，总成本超过 1.685 亿美元，包括直接（2900 万美元）和间接（1.395 亿美元）成本，总共有 4415 例确诊病例。五年的总登革热 COI 估计为 5.51 亿美元，总共有 15369 名（25745 例确诊病例的 59.7%）患者，每位患者的平均费用为 11947.6 美元。根据年份的不同，生产力损失年成本占估计总成本的 63.3%至 83.8%。登革热给当地经济带来了巨大的负担，每年造成 11020 万美元的损失，这迫切需要采取有效的国家预防战略，在减少发病率的同时，节省大量成本。
