Optimal Validated Multi-Factorial Climate Change Risk Assessment for Adaptation Planning and Evaluation of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Indonesia.

(1) Background: This paper will present an elaboration of the risk assessment methodology by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ), Eurac Research and United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) for the assessment of dengue. (2) Methods: We validate the risk assessment model by best-fitting it with the number of dengue cases per province using the least-square fitting method. Seven out of thirty-four provinces in Indonesia were chosen (North Sumatra, Jakarta Capital, West Java, Central Java, East Java, Bali and East Kalimantan). (3) Results: A risk assessment based on the number of dengue cases showed an increased risk in 2010, 2015 and 2016 in which the effects of El Nino and La Nina extreme climates occurred. North Sumatra, Bali, and West Java were more influenced by the vulnerability component, in line with their risk analysis that tends to be lower than the other provinces in 2010, 2015 and 2016 when El Nino and La Nina occurred. (4) Conclusion: Based on data from the last ten years, in Jakarta Capital, Central Java, East Java and East Kalimantan, dengue risks were mainly influenced by the climatic hazard component while North Sumatra, Bali and West Java were more influenced by the vulnerability component.