[用于估计墨西哥甲型H1N1流感流行模式的模型]
[Model to estimate epidemic patterns of influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico].
作者信息
Navarro-Robles Estela, Martínez-Matsushita Louis, López-Molina Rubén, Fritz-Hernández Jimena, Flores-Aldana Bárbara Aida, Mendoza-Pérez Juan Carlos
机构信息
Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, México.
出版信息
Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2012 Apr;31(4):269-74. doi: 10.1590/s1020-49892012000400001.
OBJECTIVE
Apply a mathematical model to estimate the epidemic patterns of influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico during the stages of application and suspension of measures to mitigate the epidemic.
METHODS
The effective reproductive number (R) for each state of Mexico during and after the application of social distancing measures was estimated by the SIR model (susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals) based on data published by the Ministry of Health of Mexico.
RESULTS
From the beginning of the outbreak until suspension of school activities (28 April-13 May 2009), the national median of R was 1.13. In the following period (14 May-17 July 2009) the national median of R decreased to 1.01.
CONCLUSIONS
It was demonstrated that several epidemic scenarios occurred at the national level. It is suggested that heterogeneous patterns at the state level be taken into account in decision-making on the adoption of measures to mitigate influenza epidemics.
目的
应用数学模型估计甲型H1N1流感在墨西哥采取和暂停缓解疫情措施阶段的流行模式。
方法
基于墨西哥卫生部公布的数据，通过SIR模型（易感者、感染者和康复者）估计墨西哥各州在采取社交距离措施期间及之后的有效繁殖数（R）。
结果
从疫情爆发开始到学校活动暂停（2009年4月28日至5月13日），全国R的中位数为1.13。在随后的时期（2009年5月14日至7月17日），全国R的中位数降至1.01。
结论
结果表明，在国家层面出现了几种流行情况。建议在决策采取缓解流感疫情的措施时考虑各州的异质模式。
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