A new simple model for prediction of hospital mortality in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND

The current prognostic models for mortality and functional outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are not simple enough. To predict the outcome of ICH, a new simple model, ICH index (ICHI), was established and evaluated in this study.

METHODS

Medical records of all cases with ICH in our hospital from January 2008 to August 2009 were reviewed. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to assess the contributions of independent variables to hospital mortality after ICH.

RESULTS

Age, serum glucose, white blood cell counts (WBC), and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score were found to be greatly associated with mortality. A formula of ICH index [ICHI = age (years)/10 + glucose (mmol/L) + WBC (10(9) /L) - GCS score] was established. Furthermore, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed to estimate the predictive value of the ICHI. The model showed an area under the ROC curve (AURC) of 0.923 (95% CI: 0.883-0.963, P < 0.001). The best cut-off value of ICHI for mortality was 18, which gave sensitivity, specificity, and Youden's index of 0.65, 0.95, and 0.60, respectively. The hospital mortality was extremely increased when 18 < ICHI < 28 (mortality 72.0%) and when ICHI ≥ 28 (mortality 100%), in contrast with overall mortality (21.6%).

CONCLUSION

The ICHI can be a simple predictive model and complementary to other prognostic models.