MRC Tropical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
Nat Commun. 2012 Jun 6;3:881. doi: 10.1038/ncomms1879.
Seasonal malaria chemoprevention, previously known as intermittent preventive treatment in children, is highly effective in areas with a short malaria transmission season. Here we assess seasonality in malaria incidence data and define a predictor of seasonality based on rainfall. We then use spatial rainfall, malaria endemicity and population data to identify areas likely to have highly seasonal malaria incidence, and estimate the population at risk and malaria burden in areas where seasonal malaria chemoprevention would be appropriate. We estimate that in areas suitable for seasonal malaria chemoprevention, there are 39 million children under 5 years of age, who experience 33.7 million malaria episodes and 152,000 childhood deaths from malaria each year. The majority of this burden occurs in the Sahelian or sub-Sahelian regions of Africa. Our data suggest that seasonal malaria chemoprevention has the potential to avert several million malaria cases and tens of thousands of childhood deaths each year if successfully delivered to the populations at risk.
季节性疟疾化学预防（此前称为儿童间歇性预防治疗）在疟疾传播季节较短的地区非常有效。在这里，我们评估疟疾发病率数据的季节性，并根据降雨量定义一个季节性预测因子。然后，我们使用空间降雨、疟疾流行地区和人口数据来确定可能具有高度季节性疟疾发病率的地区，并估计在季节性疟疾化学预防适用的地区中，处于风险中的人口和疟疾负担。我们估计，在适合季节性疟疾化学预防的地区，每年有 3900 万 5 岁以下儿童经历 3370 万疟疾发作和 15.2 万例儿童疟疾死亡。这种负担主要发生在非洲的萨赫勒或萨赫勒以南地区。我们的数据表明，如果成功地将季节性疟疾化学预防措施提供给处于风险中的人群，每年有可能避免数百万例疟疾病例和数万名儿童死于疟疾。
