Hoel D G, Dinse G E
Division of Biometry and Risk Assessment, National Institute of Environmental Health Science, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709.
Environ Health Perspect. 1990 Jul;87:123-9. doi: 10.1289/ehp.9087123.
In this paper we combine Japanese data on radiation exposure and cancer mortality with U.S. data on cancer incidence and lethality to estimate the effects of ionizing radiation on cancer incidence. The analysis is based on the mathematical relationship between the mortality rate and the incidence and lethality rates, as well as on statistical models that relate Japanese incidence rates to U.S. incidence rates and radiation risk factors. Our approach assumes that the risk of death from causes other than the cancer does not depend on whether or not the cancer is present, and among individuals with the cancer, the risk of death attributable to the cancer is the same in Japan and the U.S. and is not affected by radiation exposure. In particular, we focus on the incidence of breast cancer in Japanese women and how this incidence is affected by radiation risk factors. The analysis uses Japanese exposure and mortality data from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation study of atomic bomb survivors and U.S. incidence and lethality data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Registry. Even without Japanese incidence data, we obtain reasonable estimates of the incidence of breast cancer in unexposed Japanese women and identify the radiation risk factors that affect this incidence. Our analysis demonstrates that the age at exposure is an important risk factor, but that the incidence of breast cancer is not affected by the city of residence (Nagasaki versus Hiroshima) or the time since exposure.
在本文中，我们将日本关于辐射暴露与癌症死亡率的数据与美国关于癌症发病率和致死率的数据相结合，以估计电离辐射对癌症发病率的影响。该分析基于死亡率与发病率和致死率之间的数学关系，以及将日本发病率与美国发病率及辐射风险因素相关联的统计模型。我们的方法假定，非癌症原因导致的死亡风险不取决于是否患有癌症，并且在患有癌症的个体中，癌症导致的死亡风险在日本和美国是相同的，且不受辐射暴露影响。特别地，我们关注日本女性乳腺癌的发病率以及这种发病率如何受到辐射风险因素的影响。该分析使用了辐射效应研究基金会对原子弹幸存者的研究中的日本暴露和死亡率数据，以及监测、流行病学和最终结果登记处的美国发病率和致死率数据。即使没有日本的发病率数据，我们也能对未受辐射的日本女性乳腺癌发病率进行合理估计，并确定影响该发病率的辐射风险因素。我们的分析表明，暴露年龄是一个重要的风险因素，但乳腺癌的发病率不受居住城市（长崎与广岛）或暴露后的时间影响。
