模拟扩大中国艾滋病病毒检测和抗逆转录病毒治疗的流行病学影响。
Modelling the epidemiological impact of scaling up HIV testing and antiretroviral treatment in China.
作者信息
Zhang Lei, Gray Richard T, Wilson David P
机构信息
The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Darlinghurst, Sydney, NSW 2010, Australia.
出版信息
Sex Health. 2012 Jul;9(3):261-71. doi: 10.1071/SH11104.
BACKGROUND
The HIV epidemic in China has been increasing. In response, a 5-year action plan in China has prioritised the scale-up of HIV testing and treatment.
METHODS
We use a mathematical model to reproduce HIV epidemic trends in China and to forecast epidemic trends according to current conditions or increases in the rate of HIV testing or roll-out of antiretroviral therapy.
RESULTS
We show that the epidemic in China could be expected to experience a 2.5-fold expansion over the next 5 years such that ~1.8 million people will be infected with HIV in China by 2015. However, increasing testing and treatment rates can have substantial epidemiological benefits. For example, a four-fold increase in testing rates may avert more than 42000 HIV infections and 11000 deaths over the next 5 years. A 10-fold increase in the treatment rate could decrease the number of HIV-related deaths by 58% and the number of new infections by one-quarter by 2015.
CONCLUSIONS
Increasing HIV testing and treatment are important public health strategies for prevention.
背景
中国的艾滋病疫情一直在上升。作为应对措施，中国的一项5年行动计划将扩大艾滋病检测和治疗作为优先事项。
方法
我们使用一个数学模型来重现中国的艾滋病疫情趋势，并根据当前状况或艾滋病检测率的提高或抗逆转录病毒疗法的推广来预测疫情趋势。
结果
我们表明，预计中国的疫情在未来5年内将扩大2.5倍，到2015年中国将有大约180万人感染艾滋病病毒。然而，提高检测和治疗率可带来重大的流行病学益处。例如，检测率提高四倍可能在未来5年内避免超过42000例艾滋病病毒感染和11000例死亡。到2015年，治疗率提高10倍可使艾滋病相关死亡人数减少58%，新感染人数减少四分之一。
结论
增加艾滋病检测和治疗是重要的预防公共卫生策略。
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