Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.
Science. 2012 Jul 13;337(6091):220-3. doi: 10.1126/science.1216773. Epub 2012 Jun 14.
Nearshore waters of the California Current System (California CS) already have a low carbonate saturation state, making them particularly susceptible to ocean acidification. We used eddy-resolving model simulations to study the potential development of ocean acidification in this system up to the year 2050 under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios. In both scenarios, the saturation state of aragonite Ω(arag) is projected to drop rapidly, with much of the nearshore region developing summer-long undersaturation in the top 60 meters within the next 30 years. By 2050, waters with Ω(arag) above 1.5 will have largely disappeared, and more than half of the waters will be undersaturated year-round. Habitats along the sea floor will become exposed to year-round undersaturation within the next 20 to 30 years. These projected events have potentially major implications for the rich and diverse ecosystem that characterizes the California CS.
加利福尼亚海流系统(CCS)近岸海域的碳酸盐饱和度已经较低,使它们特别容易受到海洋酸化的影响。我们使用解析了涡流的模型模拟,根据排放情景特别报告 A2 和 B1 情景,研究了该系统在 2050 年之前海洋酸化的潜在发展情况。在这两种情景下,拟虫螺钙饱和度 Ω(arag)预计将迅速下降,在未来 30 年内,近岸地区大部分地区在 60 米深的海域夏季将长期不饱和。到 2050 年,Ω(arag)高于 1.5 的水域将基本消失,超过一半的水域将全年不饱和。未来 20 到 30 年内,海底栖息地将全年处于不饱和状态。这些预测事件可能对加利福尼亚海流系统特有的丰富多样的生态系统产生重大影响。