van de Water H P, Wiggers C C, Bijleveld C C, Berkane M
Nederlands Instituut voor Praeventieve Gezondheidszorg-TNO, Leiden.
Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd. 1990 Dec 22;134(51):2482-6.
In this article we estimate the total number of HIV seropositives in the Netherlands with an extended version of the Fast Back Calculation model. As a result we found between 5500 and 6500 seropositives for the end of 1987. This is considerably lower than earlier expectations. The distribution of incidence over time suggests that the HIV epidemic has passed its summit. We argue that the total number of HIV infected persons halfway 1990 lies somewhere between 7500 and 9000. With the estimated number of HIV seropositives we also predict minimum values for the AIDS incidence in future years. We expect the number of new AIDS cases to increase to over 600 per year in the mid-nineties. We briefly discuss the consequences of our findings for AIDS control. We underline the desirability of a policy directed at risk groups and apart from continuing existing preventive measures aimed at these groups we advocate paying more attention to i.v. drug users, visitors of STD clinics and travellers to and applicants for political asylum from endemic areas.
在本文中，我们使用扩展版的快速回溯计算模型估算了荷兰艾滋病毒血清阳性者的总数。结果发现，1987年底血清阳性者人数在5500至6500人之间。这大大低于早期预期。发病率随时间的分布表明，艾滋病毒疫情已过顶峰。我们认为，1990年年中艾滋病毒感染者总数在7500至9000人之间。根据估算的艾滋病毒血清阳性者数量，我们还预测了未来几年艾滋病发病率的最小值。我们预计，九十年代中期每年新增艾滋病病例数将增至600例以上。我们简要讨论了研究结果对艾滋病控制的影响。我们强调针对危险人群制定政策的必要性，除了继续针对这些群体采取现有的预防措施外，我们主张更加关注静脉注射吸毒者、性病门诊就诊者以及来自疫区的旅行者和政治庇护申请者。
