艾滋病毒流行率和艾滋病发病率的短期预测。
Short-term predictions of HIV prevalence and AIDS incidence.
作者信息
Hendriks J C, Medley G F, Heisterkamp S H, Van Griensven G J, Bindels P J, Coutinho R A, Van Druten J A
机构信息
Department of Public Health, Municipal Health Service Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
出版信息
Epidemiol Infect. 1992 Aug;109(1):149-60.
Reports of AIDS cases in Amsterdam up to February 1990 were used to make predictions of future cases up to 1993. Two published methods were applied, which make extrapolations from current cases and simultaneously estimate the extent of delay in reporting. The choice of the exact model greatly influenced the predictions, as did predictions for distinct transmission groups. We present results for the homo/bisexual male group, and the total population of Amsterdam. The AIDS case predictions are used to predict the HIV prevalence using the ratio of HIV prevalence to AIDS incidence and through 'back calculation'. We suggest that the ratio is a simple technique that may be used to estimate HIV prevalence. The estimated number of cumulative HIV infected homo/bisexual males in Amsterdam in January 1990 was between 2100 and 4100 in a total of 2200-4600 infected people.
截至1990年2月阿姆斯特丹艾滋病病例报告被用于预测到1993年的未来病例数。应用了两种已发表的方法，这两种方法从当前病例进行推断并同时估计报告延迟的程度。确切模型的选择对预测有很大影响，不同传播群体的预测也是如此。我们给出了同性恋/双性恋男性群体以及阿姆斯特丹总人口的结果。艾滋病病例预测通过使用HIV流行率与艾滋病发病率的比率并通过“反向计算”来预测HIV流行率。我们认为该比率是一种可用于估计HIV流行率的简单技术。1990年1月阿姆斯特丹累计感染HIV的同性恋/双性恋男性估计人数在2100至4100人之间，总共有2200 - 4600人感染。
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