Department of Policy Analysis and Management, Cornell University, Martha Van Rensselaer Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
Int J Public Health. 2013 Jun;58(3):335-43. doi: 10.1007/s00038-012-0376-7. Epub 2012 Jun 24.
Little is known about historical smoking patterns in Mexico. Policy makers must rely on imprecise predictions of human or fiscal burdens from smoking-related diseases. In this paper we document intergenerational patterns of smoking, project them for future cohorts, and discuss those patterns in the context of Mexico's impressive economic growth.
We use retrospectively collected information to generate life-course smoking prevalence rates of five birth-cohorts, by gender and education. With dynamic panel data methods, we regress smoking rates on indicators of economic development.
Smoking is most prevalent among men and the highly educated. Smoking rates peaked in the 1980s and have since decreased, slowly on average, and fastest among the highly educated. Development significantly contributed to this decline; a 1 % increase in development is associated with an average decline in smoking prevalence of 0.02 and 0.07 percentage points for women and men, respectively.
Mexico's development may have triggered forces that decrease smoking, such as the spread of health information. Although smoking rates are falling, projections suggest that they will be persistently high for several future generations.
关于墨西哥的吸烟历史模式，人们知之甚少。政策制定者必须依赖对与吸烟相关的疾病造成的人力或财政负担的不精确预测。在本文中，我们记录了吸烟的代际模式，为未来的队列进行了预测，并在墨西哥令人印象深刻的经济增长背景下讨论了这些模式。
我们使用回顾性收集的信息，按性别和教育程度生成了五个出生队列的终生吸烟流行率。我们使用动态面板数据方法，根据经济发展指标对吸烟率进行回归。
吸烟在男性和受教育程度较高的人群中最为普遍。吸烟率在 20 世纪 80 年代达到峰值，此后逐渐下降，受教育程度较高的人群下降速度最快。发展对此下降起到了重要作用；发展水平每增加 1%，女性和男性的吸烟流行率平均分别下降 0.02 和 0.07 个百分点。
墨西哥的发展可能引发了一些力量，促使吸烟减少，例如健康信息的传播。尽管吸烟率正在下降，但预测表明，未来几代人的吸烟率仍将持续居高不下。
