Vellios Nicole, van Walbeek Corné
School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa.
BMJ Open. 2016 Jul 18;6(7):e011076. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011076.
South Africa has achieved significant success with its tobacco control policy. Between 1994 and 2012, the real price of cigarettes increased by 229%, while regular smoking prevalence decreased from about 31% to 18.2%.
Cigarette prices and socioeconomic variables are used to examine the determinants of regular smoking onset. We apply duration analysis techniques to the National Income Dynamics Study, a nationally representative survey of South Africa.
We find that an increase in cigarette prices significantly reduces regular smoking initiation among males, but not among females. Regular smoking among parents is positively correlated with smoking initiation among children. Children with more educated parents are less likely to initiate regular smoking than those with less educated parents. Africans initiate later and at lower rates than other race groups.
As the tobacco epidemic is shifting towards low-income and middle-income countries, there is an increasing urgency to perform studies in these countries to influence policy. Higher cigarette excise taxes, which lead to higher retail prices, reduce smoking prevalence by encouraging smokers to quit and by discouraging young people from starting smoking.
南非的烟草控制政策取得了显著成效。1994年至2012年间，香烟实际价格上涨了229%，而经常吸烟的流行率则从约31%降至18.2%。
利用香烟价格和社会经济变量来研究经常吸烟开始的决定因素。我们将持续时间分析技术应用于《国民收入动态研究》，这是一项对南非具有全国代表性的调查。
我们发现，香烟价格上涨显著降低了男性经常吸烟的开始率，但对女性没有影响。父母经常吸烟与孩子开始吸烟呈正相关。父母受教育程度较高的孩子比父母受教育程度较低的孩子开始经常吸烟的可能性更小。非洲人开始吸烟的时间比其他种族群体更晚，且吸烟率更低。
随着烟草流行正转向低收入和中等收入国家，在这些国家开展研究以影响政策的紧迫性日益增加。提高香烟消费税会导致零售价格上涨，通过鼓励吸烟者戒烟和阻止年轻人开始吸烟来降低吸烟流行率。
