Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
J Child Psychol Psychiatry. 2012 Dec;53(12):1242-9. doi: 10.1111/j.1469-7610.2012.02577.x. Epub 2012 Jul 4.
This study addresses to what extent child and adolescent explanatory factors predict male perpetrated intimate partner violence (IPV) in adulthood.
We use prospective longitudinal data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD). The CSDD is a survey of 411 male born in the 1950s in an inner London area. The men were interviewed over a period of 40 years with information also gathered from their parents, peers and teachers and later from their female partners.
Family factors such as having a criminal father, a disrupted family, poor supervision and relationship problems with parents predicted later IPV. Individual predictors included unpopularity, daring, impulsivity, aggressiveness and low verbal IQ. There was evidence of cumulative risk for later violence in intimate partnerships.
Early childhood factors predict adult male IPV. No other study has showed the predictability of IPV over a 40-year time interval in a prospective survey. The IPV men tended to have convictions for violence and tended to be unsuccessful in areas such as employment, drinking and drug use.
本研究旨在探讨儿童和青少年的解释因素在多大程度上预测男性成年后实施亲密伴侣暴力（IPV）。
我们使用来自剑桥犯罪发展研究（CSDD）的前瞻性纵向数据。CSDD 是对 20 世纪 50 年代在伦敦市区的一个内城区出生的 411 名男性进行的一项调查。这些男性在 40 年的时间里接受了采访，同时还从他们的父母、同龄人、老师那里收集了信息，后来还从他们的女性伴侣那里收集了信息。
家庭因素，如父亲犯罪、家庭破裂、监管不力以及与父母的关系问题，都预示着日后会发生 IPV。个体预测因素包括不受欢迎、大胆、冲动、攻击性和低语言智商。有证据表明，在亲密关系中存在着累积的暴力风险。
儿童早期的因素可以预测成年男性的 IPV。没有其他研究在前瞻性调查中显示出 IPV 在 40 年时间间隔内的可预测性。这些实施 IPV 的男性往往因暴力犯罪而被定罪，而且在就业、饮酒和吸毒等方面往往不成功。
