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一种新的生育曲线拟合参数模型。

A new parametric model for fitting fertility curves.

机构信息

Instituto de Estadística de Andalucía, Seville, Spain.

出版信息

Popul Stud (Camb). 2012 Nov;66(3):297-310. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2012.695802. Epub 2012 Jul 12.

Abstract

What is the optimum way of describing the age-specific fertility pattern by mathematical functions? We propose a parametric fitting model, based on a mixture of Weibull functions, which performs well for countries where the fertility curve shows a non-traditional pattern. We also consider a simplified version of this model with a reduced number of parameters that can be applied to fit fertility curves in countries where the fertility pattern exhibits a classical shape. To test the new model, fertility curves for a range of countries and years are fitted empirically. The results show that both versions of the new model outperform existing procedures in most cases.

摘要

描述特定年龄生育率模式的最佳方法是什么?我们提出了一种基于威布尔函数混合的参数拟合模型,该模型在生育率曲线呈现非传统模式的国家表现良好。我们还考虑了这种模型的简化版本,其中参数数量减少,可用于拟合生育率模式呈经典形状的国家的生育率曲线。为了测试新模型,我们对一系列国家和年份的生育率曲线进行了实证拟合。结果表明,在大多数情况下,新模型的两个版本都优于现有方法。

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