Instituto de Estadística de Andalucía, Seville, Spain.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2012 Nov;66(3):297-310. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2012.695802. Epub 2012 Jul 12.
What is the optimum way of describing the age-specific fertility pattern by mathematical functions? We propose a parametric fitting model, based on a mixture of Weibull functions, which performs well for countries where the fertility curve shows a non-traditional pattern. We also consider a simplified version of this model with a reduced number of parameters that can be applied to fit fertility curves in countries where the fertility pattern exhibits a classical shape. To test the new model, fertility curves for a range of countries and years are fitted empirically. The results show that both versions of the new model outperform existing procedures in most cases.
描述特定年龄生育率模式的最佳方法是什么？我们提出了一种基于威布尔函数混合的参数拟合模型，该模型在生育率曲线呈现非传统模式的国家表现良好。我们还考虑了这种模型的简化版本，其中参数数量减少，可用于拟合生育率模式呈经典形状的国家的生育率曲线。为了测试新模型，我们对一系列国家和年份的生育率曲线进行了实证拟合。结果表明，在大多数情况下，新模型的两个版本都优于现有方法。
