Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2012;7(7):e38410. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0038410. Epub 2012 Jul 10.
Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.
已经证明，在一系列复杂系统中都会出现两种稳定状态之间的关键转变。虽然我们已经提高了识别自然生态系统中突然的状态转变的能力，但在这些转变之前检测到潜在的预警信号仍然非常有限。本研究使用关键生态系统组成部分的真实监测数据，应用了多种预警指标，以评估它们预测中波罗的海中部主要生态系统状态转变的能力。研究表明，一些指标和方法可以产生明确的预警信号，而其他方法在基于生态系统的管理中可能没有用处，因为它们没有或只有微弱的预警潜力。因此，本研究提出了一种在监测数据中检测生态系统状态转变的多方法方法，这可能有助于在面对生态系统变化时及时采取管理措施。
