Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland.
Institute of Marine Research, Flødevigen Marine Research Station, His, Norway.
PLoS One. 2020 Nov 30;15(11):e0237414. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237414. eCollection 2020.
Regime shifts are increasingly prevalent in the ecological literature. However, definitions vary and detection methods are still developing. Here, we employ a novel statistical algorithm based on the Bayesian online change-point detection framework to simultaneously identify shifts in the mean and (or) variance of time series data. We detected multiple regime shifts in long-term (59-154 years) patterns of coastal Norwegian Atlantic cod (>70% decline) and putative drivers of cod productivity: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); sea-surface temperature; zooplankton abundance; fishing mortality (F). The consequences of an environmental or climate-related regime shift on cod productivity are accentuated when regime shifts coincide, fishing mortality is high, and populations are small. The analyses suggest that increasing F increasingly sensitized cod in the mid 1970s and late 1990s to regime shifts in NAO, zooplankton abundance, and water temperature. Our work underscores the necessity of accounting for human-induced mortality in regime shift analyses of marine ecosystems.
生态文献中越来越多地出现动态转变。然而，定义各不相同，检测方法仍在发展。在这里，我们采用一种新的基于贝叶斯在线变化点检测框架的统计算法，同时识别时间序列数据均值和（或）方差的变化。我们在长期（59-154 年）的挪威沿海北大西洋鳕鱼模式（下降超过 70%）和鳕鱼生产力的潜在驱动因素中检测到多个动态转变：北大西洋涛动（NAO）；海面温度；浮游动物丰度；捕捞死亡率（F）。当环境或气候相关的动态转变与捕捞死亡率高、种群规模小同时发生时，对鳕鱼生产力的影响会更加明显。分析表明，自 20 世纪 70 年代中期和 90 年代末以来，捕捞死亡率的增加使鳕鱼对北大西洋涛动、浮游动物丰度和水温的变化更加敏感。我们的工作强调了在海洋生态系统的动态转变分析中考虑人为死亡率的必要性。
