Department of Marine Sciences, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT 06340-6048, USA.
Ann Rev Mar Sci. 2013;5:349-70. doi: 10.1146/annurev-marine-121211-172229. Epub 2012 Jul 31.
Predicting the response of the biota to global change remains a formidable endeavor. Zooplankton face challenges related to global warming, ocean acidification, the proliferation of toxic algal blooms, and increasing pollution, eutrophication, and hypoxia. They can respond to these changes by phenotypic plasticity or genetic adaptation. Using the concept of the evolution of reaction norms, I address how adaptive responses can be unequivocally discerned from phenotypic plasticity. To date, relatively few zooplankton studies have been designed for such a purpose. As case studies, I review the evidence for zooplankton adaptation to toxic algal blooms, hypoxia, and climate change. Predicting the response of zooplankton to global change requires new information to determine (a) the trade-offs and costs of adaptation, (b) the rates of evolution versus environmental change, (c) the consequences of adaptation to stochastic or cyclic (toxic algal blooms, coastal hypoxia) versus directional (temperature, acidification, open ocean hypoxia) environmental change, and (d) the interaction of selective pressures, and evolutionary and ecological processes, in promoting or hindering adaptation.
预测生物群落在全球变化下的响应仍然是一项艰巨的任务。浮游动物面临与全球变暖、海洋酸化、有毒藻类大量繁殖以及污染、富营养化和缺氧增加相关的挑战。它们可以通过表型可塑性或遗传适应来应对这些变化。利用反应规范进化的概念，我探讨了如何明确区分适应性反应和表型可塑性。迄今为止，相对较少的浮游动物研究为此目的而设计。作为案例研究，我回顾了浮游动物对有毒藻类大量繁殖、缺氧和气候变化的适应证据。预测浮游动物对全球变化的响应需要新的信息来确定：（a）适应的权衡和成本，（b）进化与环境变化的速度，（c）对随机或周期性（有毒藻类大量繁殖、沿海缺氧）与定向（温度、酸化、开阔海洋缺氧）环境变化的适应的后果，以及（d）选择性压力以及进化和生态过程的相互作用，这些相互作用促进或阻碍了适应。
