Jewell N P
Department of Statistics and Program in Biostatistics, University of California, Berkeley 94720.
Stat Med. 1990 Dec;9(12):1387-416; discussion 1433-7. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780091203.
Analysis of studies of the epidemiology and natural history of infection with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus and subsequent onset of AIDS are complicated by many statistical issues. Several such problems are associated with the nature of data collection which is often incomplete. Here we briefly survey some of the statistical methods that have been developed to meet the needs of analysis of AIDS data. In particular, we consider projection of the number of future cases, and estimation and identification of two key epidemiological unknowns, namely the properties of the incubation distribution and those of the infectivity associated with transmission.
对人类免疫缺陷病毒感染的流行病学及自然史以及随后艾滋病发病情况的研究分析因诸多统计问题而变得复杂。其中一些问题与数据收集的性质有关，而数据收集往往是不完整的。在此，我们简要概述一些为满足艾滋病数据分析需求而开发的统计方法。特别地，我们考虑未来病例数的预测，以及两个关键流行病学未知因素的估计和识别，即潜伏期分布的特性以及与传播相关的传染性特性。
