Industrial Ecology Programme (IndEcol), Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), S.P. Andersens veg 5, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway.
Environ Sci Technol. 2012 Aug 21;46(16):8587-94. doi: 10.1021/es300648w. Epub 2012 Aug 8.
To reach required product qualities with lowest costs, aluminum postconsumer scrap is currently recycled using strategies of downgrading and dilution, due to difficulties in refining. These strategies depend on a continuous and fast growth of the bottom reservoir of the aluminum downgrading cascade, which is formed by secondary castings, mainly used in automotive applications. A dynamic material flow model for the global vehicle system was developed to assess the likelihood, timing, and extent of a potential scrap surplus. The results demonstrate that a continuation of the above-mentioned strategies will lead to a nonrecyclable scrap surplus by around 2018 ± 5 if no additional measures are taken. The surplus could grow to reach a level of 0.4-2 kg/cap/yr in 2050, corresponding to a loss of energy saving potential of 43-240 TWh/yr electricity. Various intervention options for avoiding scrap surplus are discussed. Effective strategies need to include an immediate and rapid penetration of dramatically improved scrap sorting technologies for end-of-life vehicles and other aluminum applications.
为了以最低成本达到所需的产品质量，由于精炼困难，目前正在使用降级和稀释策略来回收铝消费后废料。这些策略取决于降级级联底部水库的持续快速增长，该水库由主要用于汽车应用的二次铸件形成。开发了一种用于全球车辆系统的动态物质流模型，以评估潜在废料过剩的可能性、时间和程度。结果表明，如果不采取其他措施，上述策略的延续将导致到 2018 年左右出现不可回收的废料过剩，到 2050 年，过剩可能会增加到 0.4-2 公斤/人/年，相当于每年损失 43-240 太瓦时/年的节电潜力。讨论了避免废料过剩的各种干预选择。有效的策略需要包括立即快速采用显著改进的报废车辆和其他铝应用的废料分类技术。
