Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, 2333 CC, Leiden, The Netherlands.
School of Management Science and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 40045, China.
Nat Commun. 2021 Oct 21;12(1):6126. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26212-z.
Building stock growth around the world drives extensive material consumption and environmental impacts. Future impacts will be dependent on the level and rate of socioeconomic development, along with material use and supply strategies. Here we evaluate material-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for residential and commercial buildings along with their reduction potentials in 26 global regions by 2060. For a middle-of-the-road baseline scenario, building material-related emissions see an increase of 3.5 to 4.6 Gt CO2eq yr-1 between 2020-2060. Low- and lower-middle-income regions see rapid emission increase from 750 Mt (22% globally) in 2020 and 2.4 Gt (51%) in 2060, while higher-income regions shrink in both absolute and relative terms. Implementing several material efficiency strategies together in a High Efficiency (HE) scenario could almost half the baseline emissions. Yet, even in this scenario, the building material sector would require double its current proportional share of emissions to meet a 1.5 °C-compatible target.
全球建筑存量的增长导致了大量的物质消耗和环境影响。未来的影响将取决于社会经济发展水平和速度，以及物质的使用和供应策略。在这里，我们评估了 26 个全球区域到 2060 年的住宅和商业建筑与相关材料的温室气体（GHG）排放及其减排潜力。在中等情景下，建筑材料相关排放将在 2020 年至 2060 年期间增加 3.5 至 4.6 吉吨二氧化碳当量。中低收入和低收入地区的排放量将迅速增加，从 2020 年的 7500 万吨（占全球的 22%）增加到 2060 年的 2.4 吉吨（占 51%），而高收入地区的排放量绝对值和相对值都在减少。在高能源效率（HE）情景下，同时实施几种材料效率策略，可将基准排放减少近一半。然而，即使在这种情况下，建筑材料部门也需要将其目前的排放比例增加一倍，才能达到 1.5°C 兼容的目标。
