University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA.
Emerg Infect Dis. 2012 Aug;18(8):1298-306. doi: 10.3201/eid1808.111558.
In Los Angeles, California, USA, 2 epidemics of West Nile virus (WNV) disease have occurred since WNV was recognized in 2003. To assess which measure of risk was most predictive of human cases, we compared 3 measures: the California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan Assessment, the vector index, and the Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time system. A case-crossover study was performed by using symptom onset dates from 384 persons with WNV infection to determine their relative environmental exposure to high-risk conditions as measured by each method. Receiver-operating characteristic plots determined thresholds for each model, and the area under the curve was used to compare methods. We found that the best risk assessment model for human WNV cases included surveillance data from avian, mosquito, and climate sources.
在美国加利福尼亚州洛杉矶，自 2003 年发现西尼罗河病毒（WNV）以来，已经发生了 2 次 WNV 疾病流行。为了评估哪种风险衡量标准最能预测人类病例，我们比较了 3 种方法：加利福尼亚蚊子传播病毒监测和响应计划评估、媒介指数和动态连续区域时空系统。通过对 384 名感染 WNV 的人的症状发作日期进行病例交叉研究，以确定他们相对于每种方法测量的高风险条件的相对环境暴露程度。接收者操作特征图确定了每个模型的阈值，并使用曲线下面积来比较方法。我们发现，用于人类 WNV 病例的最佳风险评估模型包括来自鸟类、蚊子和气候来源的监测数据。
