Centre for Macroevolution and Macroecology, Division of Ecology Evolution and Genetics, Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200, Australia.
Proc Biol Sci. 2012 Oct 7;279(1744):4024-32. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2012.1437. Epub 2012 Aug 1.
Predicting future species extinctions from patterns of past extinctions or current threat status relies on the assumption that the taxonomic and biological selectivity of extinction is consistent through time. If the driving forces of extinction change through time, this assumption may be unrealistic. Testing the consistency of extinction patterns between the past and the present has been difficult, because the phylogenetically explicit methods used to model present-day extinction risk typically cannot be applied to the data from the fossil record. However, the detailed historical and fossil records of the New Zealand avifauna provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct a complete, large faunal assemblage for different periods in the past. Using the first complete phylogeny of all known native New Zealand bird species, both extant and extinct, we show how the taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity of extinction, and biological correlates of extinction, change from the pre-human period through Polynesian and European occupation, to the present. These changes can be explained both by changes in primary threatening processes, and by the operation of extinction filter effects. The variable patterns of extinction through time may confound attempts to identify risk factors that apply across time periods, and to infer future species declines from past extinction patterns and current threat status.
从过去的灭绝模式或当前的威胁状况来预测未来的物种灭绝，依赖于这样一个假设，即灭绝的分类学和生物学选择性在时间上是一致的。如果灭绝的驱动因素随时间而变化，那么这个假设可能就不现实了。由于用于模拟当今灭绝风险的系统发育明确方法通常不能应用于化石记录的数据，因此测试过去和现在灭绝模式的一致性一直很困难。然而，新西兰鸟类的详细历史和化石记录为重建过去不同时期完整的、大型的动物群提供了一个独特的机会。利用所有已知新西兰本地鸟类物种的第一个完整系统发育关系，包括现存和已灭绝的物种，我们展示了灭绝的分类学和系统发育选择性，以及灭绝的生物学相关性，是如何从人类出现前的时期，经过波利尼西亚和欧洲人的占领，一直到现在发生变化的。这些变化既可以用主要威胁过程的变化来解释，也可以用灭绝过滤器效应的作用来解释。随着时间的推移，灭绝模式的变化可能会使试图识别适用于不同时间段的风险因素，以及根据过去的灭绝模式和当前的威胁状况推断未来物种减少的工作变得复杂。
