Integrating species traits with extrinsic threats: closing the gap between predicting and preventing species declines.

In studies of extinction risk, it is often insufficient to conclude that species with narrow ranges or small clutch sizes require prioritized protection. To improve conservation outcomes, we also need to know which threats interact with these traits to endanger some species but not others. In this study, we integrated the spatial patterns of key threats to Australian amphibians with species' ecological/life-history traits to both predict declining species and identify their likely threats. In addition to confirming the importance of previously identified traits (e.g. narrow range size), we find that extrinsic threats (primarily the disease chytridiomycosis and invasive mosquitofish) are equally important and interact with intrinsic traits (primarily ecological group) to create guild-specific pathways to decline in our model system. Integrating the spatial patterns of extrinsic threats in extinction risk analyses will improve our ability to detect and manage endangered species in the future, particularly where data deficiency is a problem.