Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Weymouth, UK.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2013 Oct;60(5):460-71. doi: 10.1111/j.1865-1682.2012.01368.x. Epub 2012 Aug 6.
Ambient water temperature is a key factor controlling the distribution and impact of disease in fish populations, and optimum temperature ranges have been characterised for the establishment of a number important aquatic diseases exotic to the UK. This study presents a simple regression method to approximate daily average surface water temperature in lakes of 0.5-15 ha in size across the UK using 5 km(2) gridded daily average air temperatures provided by the UK Meteorological Office. A Geographic information system (GIS) is used to present thematic maps of relative risk scores established for each grid cell based on the mean number of days per year that water temperature satisfied optimal criteria for the establishment of two economically important pathogens of cyprinid fish (koi herpesvirus (KHV) and spring viraemia of carp virus (SVCV)) and the distribution and density of fish populations susceptible to these viruses. High-density susceptible populations broadly overlap the areas where the temperature profiles are optimal for KHV (central and south-east England); however, few fish populations occur in areas where temperature profiles are most likely to result in the establishment of spring viremia of carp (SVC) (namely northern England and Scotland). The highest grid-cell risk scores for KHV and SVC were 7 and 6, respectively, out of a maximum score of 14. The proportion of grid cells containing susceptible populations with risk scores of 5 or more was 37% and 5% for KHV and SVC, respectively. This work demonstrates a risk-based approach to inform surveillance for exotic pathogens in aquatic animal health management, allowing efficient use of resources directed towards higher risk animals and geographic areas for early disease detection. The methodology could be used to examine the change in distribution of high-risk areas for both exotic and endemic fish diseases under different climate change scenarios.
环境水温是控制鱼类种群疾病分布和影响的关键因素，已经确定了许多英国特有的外来水生疾病的最佳温度范围。本研究提出了一种简单的回归方法，利用英国气象局提供的 5km2 网格化每日平均气温，来估算英国 0.5-15 公顷大小湖泊的日平均地表水温度。地理信息系统（GIS）用于展示基于每个网格单元每年满足建立两种经济上重要的鲤鱼病原体（锦鲤疱疹病毒（KHV）和鲤鱼春病毒血症病毒（SVCV））所需水温最佳标准的天数的平均数量建立的相对风险评分的专题地图，以及易受这些病毒感染的鱼类种群的分布和密度。高密度易感种群与 KHV 水温分布最佳的地区大致重叠（英格兰中部和东南部）；然而，在最有可能导致鲤鱼春病毒血症建立的地区（即英格兰北部和苏格兰），很少有鱼类种群。KHV 和 SVC 的最高网格单元风险评分分别为 7 和 6，最高评分为 14。风险评分在 5 或以上的易感种群网格单元比例分别为 KHV 和 SVC 的 37%和 5%。这项工作展示了一种基于风险的方法，用于告知水生动物健康管理中对外来病原体的监测，从而有效地利用资源针对高风险动物和地理区域进行早期疾病检测。该方法可用于研究不同气候变化情景下，高风险地区对外来和内生病原体的分布变化。
