National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80301, USA.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2012 Sep 13;370(1974):4217-62. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2012.0086.
The idea behind the marine cloud-brightening (MCB) geoengineering technique is that seeding marine stratocumulus clouds with copious quantities of roughly monodisperse sub-micrometre sea water particles might significantly enhance the cloud droplet number concentration, and thereby the cloud albedo and possibly longevity. This would produce a cooling, which general circulation model (GCM) computations suggest could-subject to satisfactory resolution of technical and scientific problems identified herein-have the capacity to balance global warming up to the carbon dioxide-doubling point. We describe herein an account of our recent research on a number of critical issues associated with MCB. This involves (i) GCM studies, which are our primary tools for evaluating globally the effectiveness of MCB, and assessing its climate impacts on rainfall amounts and distribution, and also polar sea-ice cover and thickness; (ii) high-resolution modelling of the effects of seeding on marine stratocumulus, which are required to understand the complex array of interacting processes involved in cloud brightening; (iii) microphysical modelling sensitivity studies, examining the influence of seeding amount, seed-particle salt-mass, air-mass characteristics, updraught speed and other parameters on cloud-albedo change; (iv) sea water spray-production techniques; (v) computational fluid dynamics studies of possible large-scale periodicities in Flettner rotors; and (vi) the planning of a three-stage limited-area field research experiment, with the primary objectives of technology testing and determining to what extent, if any, cloud albedo might be enhanced by seeding marine stratocumulus clouds on a spatial scale of around 100×100 km. We stress that there would be no justification for deployment of MCB unless it was clearly established that no significant adverse consequences would result. There would also need to be an international agreement firmly in favour of such action.
海洋云致亮(MCB)地球工程技术的理念是,用大量大致单分散的亚微米海水颗粒对海洋层积云进行播种,可能会显著增加云滴数浓度,从而提高云的反照率,并可能延长云的寿命。这将产生冷却效果,而全球环流模型(GCM)计算表明,在解决本文中确定的技术和科学问题的前提下,这种冷却效果有能力平衡全球变暖,直至二氧化碳加倍。本文描述了我们最近对与 MCB 相关的若干关键问题的研究。这涉及到:(i)GCM 研究,这是我们评估 MCB 全球有效性和评估其对降雨量和分布以及极地海冰覆盖和厚度的气候影响的主要工具;(ii)对海洋层积云播种效果的高分辨率建模,这是理解云增亮所涉及的复杂相互作用过程所必需的;(iii)微物理建模敏感性研究,研究播种量、种子颗粒盐质量、空气团特征、上升气流速度和其他参数对云反照率变化的影响;(iv)海水喷雾生产技术;(v)Flettner 转子可能存在的大规模周期性的计算流体动力学研究;以及(vi)分三个阶段的有限区域现场研究实验的规划,主要目的是进行技术测试,并确定在多大程度上可以通过在约 100×100km 的空间尺度上对海洋层积云进行播种来增强云的反照率。我们强调,除非明确确定不会产生任何重大不利后果,否则不应部署 MCB。此外,还需要有一个坚定支持此类行动的国际协议。