CSIRO Environment, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
Sci Adv. 2024 Nov 29;10(48):eado6884. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.ado6884.
Although global warming is leading to more frequent mass coral bleaching events worldwide, parts of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have consistently escaped severe coral bleaching. Modeling and satellite observations show that climate refugia are created by the upwelling of cooler water to the surface through the interactions of tides and currents with dense reef structures. Here, we use a high-resolution nested regional ocean model to investigate the future status of two relatively large refugia. On the basis of model projections under a high-emission scenario, we find that the upwelling mechanisms will stay active in a warming climate, and these regions are likely to remain approximately more than 1°C cooler than surrounding waters until at least into the 2080s, providing thermal relief to corals. Identification and protection of these refugia may help facilitate reef survival and related biodiversity preservation by allowing their corals time to acclimatize and adapt and ultimately provide source populations to replenish the rest of the reef.
尽管全球变暖导致世界各地大规模珊瑚白化事件愈发频繁，但大堡礁（GBR）的部分区域却始终免受严重珊瑚白化的影响。建模和卫星观测表明，通过潮汐和海流与密集的珊瑚礁结构相互作用，上升流会在海面形成较冷的水团，从而形成气候避难所。在这里，我们使用高分辨率嵌套区域海洋模型来研究两个相对较大的避难所的未来状况。根据高排放情景下的模型预测，我们发现上升流机制在气候变暖的情况下仍将保持活跃，这些区域的温度至少在 2080 年代之前仍可能比周围水域低 1°C 以上，为珊瑚提供了热量缓解。识别和保护这些避难所可以通过为珊瑚提供适应和调整的时间，帮助促进珊瑚礁的生存和相关生物多样性的保护，并最终为补充其余珊瑚礁提供源种群。
