Central blood pressure: a powerful predictor of the development of hypertension.

We examined whether the central aortic systolic blood pressure, a marker of the function of the systemic arterial tree, might be a more powerful predictor of the development of hypertension than the brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity, a marker of the stiffness of the large- to middle-sized arteries, independent of the conventional risk factors for the development of hypertension. In 1268 Japanese men without hypertension (43±8 years old), the relationships between three variables (the second peak of the radial pressure waveform (SP2), brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity and conventional risk factors measured at the first examination) with the presence of hypertension at the second examination (after 3 years' follow-up) were examined. Hypertension was detected at the second examination in 154 men. The best cutoff points of the brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity and SP2, for predicting the development of hypertension, were 12.7 m/s and 109 mm Hg, respectively. The results of a logistic regression analysis confirmed that an SP2 of ≥109 mm Hg (odds ratio=8.493, P<0.001) was a more powerful predictor of the development of hypertension than a brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity of ≥12.7 m/s, independent of the conventional risk factors. The net reclassification index of SP2 (at the best cutoff point) to brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity was 0.211 (P<0.001), indicating that SP2 is a better predictor of the development of hypertension than brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity. In middle-aged Japanese men without hypertension, SP2 may be a more powerful predictor of the development of hypertension than the assessment of stiffness in large to middle-sized arteries independent of the conventional risk factors.