Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, via Sommarive 14, 38100 Povo, Trento, Italy.
J Biol Dyn. 2010 Mar;4(2):140-57. doi: 10.1080/17513750902883283.
We consider a simple model to study the dynamics of sarcoptic mange in a population of chamois. The epidemiological patterns observed during an epidemic in Italy are reconstructed and key parameters of the model are estimated from field data. In particular, we calculate the basic reproductive ratio R (0), a threshold value for chamois density for the occurrence of an epidemic and the speed of propagation of the epidemic wave. The model is then used to obtain indications on the effect of culling as a possible control measure in a closed population and extended to analyse the spatial diffusion of the epidemic. Our results are in agreement with mange epidemiology and observations, and suggest that intervention could be efficacious in reducing the impact of an epidemic.
我们考虑了一个简单的模型，用于研究在岩羚羊种群中寄生性疥癣的动态。我们重建了意大利一次流行疫情期间的流行病学模式，并从实地数据中估计了模型的关键参数。特别是，我们计算了基本繁殖数 R（0）、岩羚羊密度的爆发阈值以及流行波的传播速度。然后，我们使用该模型获得了关于在封闭种群中扑杀作为一种可能控制措施的效果的指示，并将其扩展到分析疫情的空间扩散。我们的结果与疥癣流行病学和观察结果一致，并表明干预可能有助于减轻疫情的影响。
