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奶牛群体中数字性皮炎的动态:基于模型的转移率估计及其对控制的影响。

The dynamics of digital dermatitis in populations of dairy cattle: model-based estimates of transition rates and implications for control.

机构信息

Central Veterinary Institute, Animal Sciences Group of Wageningen University and Research, P.O. Box 65, 8200 AB Lelystad, The Netherlands.

出版信息

Vet J. 2012 Sep;193(3):648-53. doi: 10.1016/j.tvjl.2012.06.047. Epub 2012 Aug 9.

Abstract

Five groups of dairy cows affected by digital dermatitis were subjected to five different footbath strategies and evaluated at regular 3-weekly intervals. A standard protocol was used to record five different stages of disease from early (M1), acute ulcerative (M2), healing (M3) and chronic lesions (M4) in addition to the negative stage of disease (M0). The effect of the footbathing was evaluated using mathematical modelling for the transmission dynamics of infections and summarized using the reproduction ratio R(0). Sensitivity analysis for a range of parameters in the mathematical model showed that the speed of detecting acute lesions and the efficiency with which those lesions were treated were the key parameters which determined whether lesions became more severe or whether they healed.

摘要

将五组患有蹄叶炎的奶牛分为五组,分别采用五种不同的泡脚策略,并每三周定期评估一次。采用标准方案记录疾病的五个不同阶段,包括早期(M1)、急性溃疡性(M2)、愈合(M3)和慢性病变(M4),以及疾病的阴性阶段(M0)。使用传染病传播动力学的数学模型评估泡脚的效果,并使用繁殖率 R(0)进行总结。对数学模型中一系列参数的敏感性分析表明,检测急性病变的速度以及治疗这些病变的效率是决定病变是否加重或是否愈合的关键参数。

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