Modelling the transmission dynamics of bovine digital dermatitis in New Zealand pastoral dairy production systems.

Bovine digital dermatitis (DD) is an important infectious cause of cattle lameness worldwide that has become increasingly prevalent in New Zealand pastoral dairy herds. In this study, a simplified DD scoring system after considering both M and Iowa DD scoring systems was applied to explore the transmission dynamics of DD in a typical spring-calving pastoral New Zealand dairy herd. The modified model only included three compartments: normal skin, early stage lesions and advanced lesions. Lesions regressing after treatment were excluded as DD lesions are rarely treated in New Zealand. Furthermore, sub-classes within each lesion class were not defined due to the lack of variability in DD lesion presentations within New Zealand. The model was validated based on longitudinal field data from three dairy herds in the Waikato region during one lactation season (2017-18). The model suggested that in infected dairy herds, although DD prevalence will tend to increase year-on-year it is likely to remain relatively low (< 18%) even after 10 years of within-herd transmission. It is likely that the low transmission rate during the late lactation (model assumption) results in more cases resolving than developing during this period and therefore results in the low prevalence of infectious cattle at the start of each subsequent lactation. Cattle with advanced lesions had a stronger influence on the establishment and maintenance of DD than cattle with early stage lesions highlighting the importance of targeting these animals for intervention. On-going monitoring of DD is highly recommended to assess the long-term progression of the disease in affected dairy herds.