Erasmus MC, Department of Public Health, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Risk Anal. 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):S190-201. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01827.x.
A consortium of six research groups estimated the impact on lung cancer mortality of changes in smoking behavior that began around the publication of the Surgeon General's report (SGR). This chapter presents the results of that effort. We quantified the cumulative impact of changes in smoking behaviors on lung cancer mortality in the United States over the period 1975-2000.
The six groups used common inputs and independent models to estimate the number of U.S. lung cancer deaths averted over the period 1975-2000 as a result of changes in smoking behavior beginning in the mid fifties, and the number of deaths that could have been averted if tobacco control had completely eliminated all smoking following issuance of the first SGR on Smoking and Health in 1964.
Approximately 795,000 deaths (550,000 men and 245,000 women) were averted over the period 1975-2000 as a result of changes in smoking behavior since in 1950s. In the year 2000 alone approximately 70,000 lung cancer deaths were averted (44,000 among men and 26,000 among women). However, these represent approximately 30% of lung cancer deaths that could have potentially been averted over the period 1975-2000 if smoking was eliminated completely. In the 10-year period 1991-2000, this fraction increased to about 37%.
Our results show the substantial impact of changes in smoking behavior since the 1950s. Despite a major impact of changing smoking behaviors, tobacco control effort are still needed to further reduce the burden of this disease.
一个由六个研究小组组成的联盟，根据《外科医生报告》（SGR）发表前后的吸烟行为变化，估计了对肺癌死亡率的影响。本章介绍了这方面的研究结果。我们定量评估了 1975-2000 年期间美国吸烟行为变化对肺癌死亡率的累积影响。
六个小组使用共同的输入数据和独立的模型来估算 1975-2000 年期间由于 50 年代中期开始的吸烟行为变化而避免的美国肺癌死亡人数，以及如果烟草控制在 1964 年第一份《外科医生报告》发布后完全消除所有吸烟行为，本可以避免的死亡人数。
自 50 年代以来，吸烟行为的变化导致 1975-2000 年期间约有 79.5 万人（55 万男性和 24.5 万女性）死亡。仅在 2000 年，就有大约 7 万人死于肺癌（其中 4.4 万人是男性，2.6 万人是女性）。然而，这只占如果在 1975-2000 年期间完全消除吸烟行为，可能会避免的肺癌死亡人数的约 30%。在 1991-2000 年的十年期间，这一比例增加到约 37%。
我们的研究结果表明，自 50 年代以来，吸烟行为的变化产生了重大影响。尽管吸烟行为的改变产生了重大影响，但仍需要进行烟草控制工作，以进一步降低这种疾病的负担。
