Yale School of Public Health, 60 College St., New Haven, CT 06520, USA.
Risk Anal. 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):S39-50. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01759.x.
Publication of the Surgeon General's Report in 1964 marshaled evidence of the harm to public health caused by cigarette smoking, including lung cancer mortality, and provided an impetus for introducing control programs. The purpose of this article is to develop estimates of their effect on basic smoking exposure input parameters related to introduction of the report. Fundamental inputs used to generate exposure to cigarettes are initiation and cessation rates for men and women, as well as the distribution of the number of cigarettes smoked per day. These fundamental quantities are presented for three scenarios: actual tobacco control in the United States; no tobacco control in which the experience before 1955 was assumed to continue; and complete tobacco control in which all smoking ceased following publication of the report. These results were derived using data from National Health Interview Surveys, and they provide basic input parameters for the Smoking History Generator used by each of the lung cancer models developed by the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network.
1964 年发布的《外科医生报告》汇集了吸烟对公众健康造成的危害的证据，包括肺癌死亡率，并为引入控制计划提供了动力。本文的目的是估计报告发布对与报告引入相关的基本吸烟暴露输入参数的影响。生成吸烟暴露的基本输入是男性和女性的开始吸烟和停止吸烟的比率，以及每天吸烟的数量分布。这些基本数量呈现了三种情况：美国实际的烟草控制；假设 1955 年之前的经验继续的情况下没有烟草控制；以及报告发布后所有吸烟都停止的情况下完全的烟草控制。这些结果是使用国家健康访谈调查的数据得出的，它们为癌症干预和监测建模网络开发的每个肺癌模型使用的吸烟史生成器提供了基本输入参数。
